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Selamat Datang to Malaysia
The
APEC Summit in Kuala Lumpur takes place at a critical time for the Asia-Pacific
region. A mere 18 months ago, many of you who are gathered here were still
lauding the achievements of the "Asian Tigers" and heralding the dawn of
the Pacific Century. Asia, it seemed, would be the Promised Land of sustained
economic growth. But the "Asian flu" has left in its wake economic devastation,
shattered dreams and severe social dislocation that will take decades to
repair. Indeed, as we stand on the threshold of the new millenium,
it seems apt to paraphrase Dickens; the best of times has turned out to
be the worst of times.
However, it is most ironical that the summit of a world body whose cherished ideal is economic cooperation through free trade and liberalisation is being hosted by a man whose favorite pastime is to attack the free market. It is not normal to conduct economic discourse from behind prison walls. But these are not normal times in Malaysia; nor indeed in much of Asia. Detention has its benefits; solitude has given me time to pause and ponder on the reasons for Asia's economic decline and consider what remedies may be possible.
Just as Asia's boom of the last decade was no mirage, there is no great mystery behind its sudden collapse. The Asian crisis has been debated at great length and its causes are well-known. It turns out that some of the factors behind the success story were the very forces that triggered the crisis. Unregulated flows of capital seeking high returns led to reckless investments, manifested in towering skyscrapers and stratospheric stock prices. Liquidity flowed like hot lava to emerging markets where corporations were hungry for capital at low interest rates. These flows were unrealistically insulated by inflexible exchange rate systems, which pegged the Asian growth story to low U.S. interest rates. This in turn left currencies vulnerable to attacks by speculators and rogue traders.
True, there were forces lurking in the shadows, waiting for any opportunity to make a fast buck from betting on the ability, or inability, of central banks to defend currencies. Any reform in the international financial must address ways to combat this menace. But what of the affected countries themselves? Do we not take the individual and collective responsibility for our problems just as we have taken credit for our successes in the last decade? Were not the countries which exposed themselves to vulnerabilities in their external accounts indirectly inviting attacks on their currencies?
The underlying problem in Asia, then, is perhaps deeper than what is suggested by conventional analyses of boom-and-bust cycles, or by the criticism leveled at dark forces out to destroy the international financial system. Instead of pointing fingers at speculators and blaming "unrealistic demands" set by international agencies acting as lenders of last resort, Asian nations would do well to put their house in order first. Indeed, there is need for a new architecture in the international financial system, but structural reforms must begin at home. That means containing the exuberance of political and corporate leaders for projects that do not add to the competitiveness or well-being of a nation, in particular real estate and oversized infrastructure undertakings.
We in Malaysia are as guilty as anyone else in the region. The frenzied rises of the equity and property markets in the early to mid-nineties spawned an overwhelming desire to outdo the rest of the world in infrastructure development. Barely had the paint dried on the world's tallest twin towers, we were starting work on a multi-billion-ringgit government administrative centre and a massive hydroelectric dam and laying out ambitious plans for outlandish projects such as the world's longest city.
Asian nations must firmly commit themselves to wiping out corruption and nepotism. Clearly, many of our problems could have been avoided if there had been greater commitment to eradicating subsidies, monopolies and favoritsm. In the case of Malaysia, it is unfortunate that Dr. Mahathir who in the past have lectured the peasantry about their "subsidy mentality" has descended from his pedestal to promote the worst kind of subsidy mentality among his cronies and the super rich. Is Asia, where cronyism is entrenched in many quarters, ready for this sea change towards a more ethical and moral political leadership and better corporate governance? So many vested interests are at stake. But unless the gale of creative destruction is unleashed on these rent-sacking and parasitic corporate activities, the Asian economy will never regain its past vigour. This process of house cleaning, along with the removal of tariff barriers, will serve as the cornerstone for a revitalised global trading system and underpin the success of APEC.
This Asian renaissance should encompass not only political transparency and better corporate governance, but also reforms to society and culture, and respect for human rights, the environment and the independence of the judiciary. Without this commitment to these values, debate on resolving the Asian crisis may well turn out to be more lip service.
That said, APEC leaders would do well to drive home several key points to revitalise the emerging markets in Asia, Latin America, and also Russia. At the outset, higher standards should be set for financial transparency in a globalised economy so adequate warning signals are sent out whenever a country veers significantly off course. The regional and international financial institutions were caught offguard by rapid falls in the international reserves of some countries. Opaqueness will only foment uncertainty and delay a return of the confidence needed to rehabilitate the region.
Financial institutions need to be properly supervised - by individual countries as well as regional and international agencies. And, as the recent case involving Long Term Capital Management has shown, developing nations are not the only ones that must heed this call. Risk assessment - for central banks and international financial institutions, and lenders and investors - can be properly made only if prudence is observed supervising the financial sector. Non-performing loans and the contingent liabilities of banks in Asia rose dramatically because of poor management, and even poorer regulation. Balance sheets were hammered when risky assets tilted unfavorably against capital and reserves.
APEC should make a commitment towards openess in international capital markets. Although some have blamed liberalisation of the capital account for the crises in Asia and Latin America, the general process of opening up markets should not stop. More important, measures must be taken to emphasis foreign direct investment over short-term capital flows. The coroflary to that argument must be that capital controls can be at best a temporary measure. Exchange controls cannot be used to artificially cocoon at country from the realities of the marketplace. APEC was founded on the principle of free-market policies. It is hoped that key targets for achieving further trade liberalistion can be hammered out before this summit is over.
A strong message must be sent in Japan - the largest economy in the region - that it must play a more dynamic role in restoring confidence in the region. It can do this only by committing itself to a reform of its financial system and spurring domestic economic growth. After five years of economic slumber, Japan must now rouse itself up and herald a new dawn for the rest of Asia. The example it sets in liberalisation will be followed by the rest of Asia, helping the region to rebuild itself. The economies of Asia will revitalise themselves and APEC will be one of its key pillars.
It has been argued that APEC is an economic organisation, not a political forum. But economics and politics are so intermingled that any clear-cut separation is an illusion. The great Asian boom was certainly founded upon political stability. Thus a re-engineering of political stability must again be the pre-condition for sustained growth in Asia. Unfortunately, there are fanatics - those who would trample on anything, even human rights and human lives, in order to achieve political stability. But we all know that no amount of coercion and suppression can break the people's will in seeking freedom and justice.
For decades, some aging Asian leaders have tried to convince their people that soft authoritarianism for prosperity. But a new generation has emerged to whom such arguments have lost their persuasion. Indeed, they see in these arguments only self-serving justifications for all forms of excesses, including corruption. To the new generation of Asians, political stability is indeed equally important, but it must be based on freedom and justice, not coercion and denial of fundamental rights.
Signed
Anwar Ibrahim
Sungai Buloh Prison